The 4th EnKF Workshop Agenda, April 6-9

Conveners: Fuqing Zhang, Chris Snyder, David Dowell and Ryan Torn

Location: Rensselaerville Meeting Center,
 Rensselaerville, New York

Group Photos: 1 and 2

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

6:00-7:30 Dinner

7:30-9:00 Poster session (see list of posters)


Wednesday, April 7, 2010

7:00-8:00 Breakfast

8:00-8:20 Opening remarks and introduction


Session 1: Satellite data assimilation (Chair: Peter Houtekamer)

8:20 Satellite Radiance Assimilation with an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter. Zhiquan Liu, Craig Schwart, Yongsheng Chen and Xiangyu Huang.

8:40 Assimilation of simulated ABI infrared brightness temperatures using an Ensemble Kalman Filter, Jason A. Otkin and Will Lewis.

9:00 The application of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman filter in Carbon Cycle study—Assimilation of AIRS CO2 observations in a carbon-climate model, Junjie Liu, Eugenia Kalnay, Inez Fung, Moustafa T. Chahine, and Edward T. Olsen.

9:20 discussion


9:40-10:10 break


Session 2: New algorithm development (Chair: Eugenia Kalnay)

10:10 Doubling the resolution of an ensemble Kalman filter, P.L. Houtekamer.

10:30 Localization and Correlation in Ensemble Kalman Filters, Jeff Anderson

10:50 The importance of error covariance in the core region of a hurricane for dynamically consistent vortex initialization: Can background error be approximated using an axisymmetric model? Jonathan Poterjoy and Fuqing Zhang

11:10 Partially adaptive ensemble covariance localization in ensemble 4D-VAR, Craig Bishop and Dan Hodyss

11:30 discussion


11:50-1:30 lunch


Session 3: Obs/model error and parameter estimation (Chair: Craig Bishop)

1:30 An adaptive covariance inflation method with the LETKF, Takemasa Miyoshi

1:50 Kalman Filter and Analogs to Improve Numerical Weather Predictions, L. Delle Monache, Gregory Roux, Yubao Liu, and Thomas Warner, Thomas Nipen, Neil Jacobs, Peter Childs, and Roland Stull.

2:10 State-space analysis of model error: a probabilistic parameter estimation framework with spatial analysis of variance, Joshua Hacker, Cari Kaufman, James Hansen

2:30 Ensemble-Based Simultaneous State and Parameter Estimation for Treatment of Mesoscale Model Error: a real data study. Xiao-Ming Hu, Fuqing Zhang and John Nielsen-Gammon

2:50 discussion


3:10-4:30 Informal Poster session (if the weather prevents outside activities)


3:10-6:00 afternoon break


6:00-7:30 dinner


Session 4: Hybrid and intercomparison I (Chair: Jeff Anderson)

7:30 Hybrid Var/EnDA at UK MET Office. Dale Barker

7:50 Hybrid variational-ensemble data assimilation at NCEP, Daryl T. Kleist, NCEP

8:10 A hybrid ensemble-variational data assimilation system for WRF: recent results for hurricane predictions, Xuguang Wang.

8:30 Comparing variational, ensemble-based and hybrid data assimilations at the regional scales. Meng Zhang and Fuqing Zhang, Xiang-Yu Huang and Xin Zhang.

8:50 discussion


Thursday, April 8, 2010

7:00-8:00 Breakfast

Session 5: Hybrid and intercomparison II (Chair: Dale Barker)

8:00 Relationship between Bred Vectors, Singular Vectors, Ensemble Kalma Filter and 4D-Var, Eugenia Kalnay and Shu-Chih Yang with Alberto Carrassi, Matteo Corazza, and Takemasa Miyoshi.

8:20 Preliminary Results with a Direct Minimization of the LETKF Cost Function, Istvan Szunyogh and Eric Kostelich

8:40 Use of Ensemble Data Assimilation information in the ECMWF deterministic analysis, Massimo Bonavita, ECMWF

9:00 A Hybrid Ensemble Kalman Filter Approach to Data Assimilation, Lili Lei and David R. Stauffer.

9:20 discussion


9:40-10:10 break


Session 6: Hurricane Applications (Chair: Takemasa Miyoshi)

10:10 Ensemble predictions of hurricanes with a global model initialized with an EnKF, Jeff Whitaker, Phil Pegion, Tom Hamill and Mike Fiorino.

10:30 ARW/EnKF performance for the 2009 Hurricane Season, Ryan Torn.

10:50 Vortex-Scale Hurricane Data Assimilation: OSSE and Real-Data Results with Airborne Doppler Radar, Dropsonde, and Flight-Level Observations Using NOAA/AOML/HRD’s HWRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS), Altug Aksoy, Tomislava Vukicevic, Kathryn Sellwood, Sylvie Lorsolo, Sim D. Aberson, and Fuqing Zhang.

11:10 Cloud-resolving Ensemble Analysis and Forecast Assimilating Airborne Doppler Radar Observations and real-time performance during the 2008/2009 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons, Yonghui Weng and Fuqing Zhang

11:30 discussion


11:50-1:30 lunch


Session 7: Regional-scale development and applications (Chair: Jeff Whitaker)

1:30 Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of Coastal and Inland WSR-88D Radar Data and Forecasting for Hurricane Ike (2008) and Tropical Storm Erin (2007). Jili Dong and Ming Xue

1:50 Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis Applied to the Genesis of Typhoon Nuri (2008), Rahul Mahajan and Gregory Hakim.

2:10 Development of an Ensemble Data Assimilation System for Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction, Tadashi Fujita.

2:30 The Ensemble Kalman Filter in the CNMCA regional NWP system: tuning and tests in a pre-operational configuration, Lucio Torrisi, Francesca Marcucci and Massimo Bonavita.

2:50 discussion


3:10-6:00 afternoon break


6:00-7:30 dinner


Session 8: Radar and convective-scale applications I (Chair: Ming Xue)

7:30 Application of a WRF mesoscale ensemble data assimilation system to severe weather events during springs 2007-2009, Dustan M. Wheatley, David J. Stensrud, and Nusrat Yussouf.

7:50 Multiple radar EnKF analyses of the 29 May 2004 OKC supercell: Further comparisons with dual-Doppler kinematics, Louis J. Wicker.

8:10 Impact of Assimilating Radar Observations on Storm-scale EnKF System within Realistic Mesoscale Environment, Nusrat Yussouf, Dustan M. Wheatley and David J. Stensrud

8: 30 The use of high-resolution EnKF analyses for the diagnostic analysis of supercell storms. Jim Marquis, Yvette Richardson, David Dowell and Paul Markowski

8:50 discussion


Friday, April 9, 2010

7:00-8:00 Breakfast

Session 9: Radar and convective-scale applications II (Chair: Lou Wicker)

8:00 Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of WSR-88D and CASA Radar Data for Prediction of a Tornadic Convective System, Nathan Snook Ming Xue and Youngsun Jung.

8:20 Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of Radar Data for a Convective Storm using a Two-moment Microphysics Scheme. Youngsun Jung, Ming Xue and Mingjing Tong

8:40 Thunderstorm-Scale EnKF Analyses Verified with Dual-Polarization, Dual-Doppler Radar Data. David Dowell and Wiebke Deierling

9:00 Demonstration of radar-data assimilation and prediction for Front Range convection, Glen Romine, David Dowell and Chris Snyder (NCAR).

9:20 discussion


9:40-10:10 break


Session 10

10:10-11:30 Grand discussion (Moderator: Fuqing Zhang)


11:30-1:00 lunch

1:00 Workshop adjourn

List of poster presentations

1.       Simultaneous State Estimation and Attenuation Correction for Thunderstorms with X-band Radar Data using Ensemble Kalman Filter: Experiments with the CASA X-band Radar Network, Jing Cheng and Ming Xue.


2.      Geostationary Imagery and its role in improving Tropical Cyclone Structure in NWP, William Lewis.


3.      Development of a “seamless” mesoscale ensemble data assimilation and prediction system, Yubao Liu, Wanli Wu, Linlin Pan, Francois Vandenberghe, Gregory Roux, Will Y.Y., Cheng, Gael Descombes, Hui Liu, Tom Warner and Scott Swerdlin.


4.      Adaptive localization and adaptive inflation with the LETKF, Takemasa Miyoshi.


5.      Prediction of Convective Initiation and Storm Evolution on 12 and 19 June 2002 during IHOP_2002: Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of Multiple Data Sources, Qi-Wei Wang and Ming Xue.


6.      Raising the model top for an ensemble Kalman filter system. Seung-Jong Baek and Peter Houtekamer


7.      The development of a hybrid 3DVAR-EnKF algorithm for stormscale data assimilation, Jidong Gao.


8.      Ensemble Numerical Prediction of the 4-5 May 2007 Greensburg, Kansas Tornadic Supercell and Associated Mesocyclones using EnKF Radar Data Assimilation, Daniel T. Dawson II Louis J. Wicker, Edward R. Mansell.          


9.      Understanding differences of two deterministic ensemble Kalman filters, Brian Holland and Xuguang Wang.


10.  EnKF Data Assimilation and Breeding for the Martian Atmosphere, Steven J. Greybush, Eugenia Kalnay, M. J. Hoffman, R.J. Wilson, R.N. Hoffman, K. Ide, T. Miyoshi.


11.  Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction of the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Supercell Storm Assimilating Radar and Surface Network Wind Observations using EnKF, Ting Lei, Ming Xue and Tianyou Yu.


12.  Radar data assimilation using a hybrid ensemble-variational analysis method for the prediction of hurricane IKE 2008, Yongzuo Li, Xuguang Wang, Ming Xue.


13.  Evaluation of the impact of different observations on forecasting a cold-air-damming event using the NCAR-DART system,  Linlin Pan, Yubao Liu, Wanli Wu, Will Y.Y., Cheng, Gael Descombes, Hui Liu, Jeff Anderson, Luca Delle Monache, Neil Jacobs and Peter Childs.


14.  Predictability of the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System: Predictability of the Magnitude and the Spectrum of the Uncertainties, E. Satterfield and I. Szunyogh.


15.  3DVAR-based Data Assimilation for the 8-9 May 2007 Oklahoma Tornadic Mesoscale Convective System and Comparison with EnKF Results, Alexander D. Schenkman, Ming Xue, and Nathan Snook.


16.  EnKF assimilation of mobile Doppler radar data collected in the 4 May 2007 Greensburg, Kansas cyclic tornadic thunderstorm, Robin L. Tanamachi, David C. Dowell, Louis J. Wicker, Howard B. Bluestein, Stephen Frasier, Kery Hardwick.


17.  Impact of Phased Array Radar Observations on the Analysis of the 29 May 2004 Oklahoma City Supercell Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter, Therese Thompson.


18.  A simple state-dependent multiplicative inflation algorithm, Jeff Whitaker and Tom Hamill.


19.  The Effect of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error on the Structure of the Analyzed Vortex in a Global EnKF, Philip Pegion and Jeff Whitaker.


20.  Evaluation of Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme Sensitivities for the Purpose of Parameter Estimation. John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Xiao-Ming Hu, Fuqing Zhang and John Pleim


21.  Using  adaptive localization in ETKF-type Adaptive observation scheme with simple models. Gang Zhao, Ming Xue and Xuguang Wang