The 5th EnKF Workshop Agenda, May 21-24, 2012

Conveners: Fuqing Zhang, Chris Snyder, Ryan Torn, Takemasa Miyoshi and Ming Xue

Location: Carey Meeting Center, Rensselaerville, New York

Workshop Group Pictures 1 & 2


Day 0, Monday, May 21, 2012

6:30-8:00 Dinner


DAY 1, Tuesday, May 22, 2012

7:00-8:00 Breakfast

8:00               Opening remarks


8:20-9:40                Session 1:  TROPICAL CYCLONES I 3 talks, 20 min discussion

Session chair: Fuqing Zhang



The Advanced Hurricane WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System:  Current status and future plans; Ryan Torn, SUNY Alany


Performance and plans for the PSU realtime hurricane EnKF analysis and forecast system; Yonghui Weng, Penn State University, and Fuqing Zhang


Impact of assimilating AMSU-A radiances on forecasts of 2008 Atlantic tropical cyclones initialized with a limited-area ensemble Kalman filter;  Zhiquan Liu (NCAR), Craig S. Schwartz, Chris Snyder, and So-Young Ha, NCAR/MMM




10:10-11:50          Session 2: HYBRID AND ENSEMBLE VAR 4 talks, 20 min discussion

                        Session chair: Chris Snyder


Hybrid 4DVAR development at NRL: Results from two 3-month trials; David D. Kuhl, Naval Research Laboratory, Tom Rosmond, Craig H. Bishop and Elizabeth Satterfield


Ensemble 4DVAR for the NCEP hybrid GSI-EnKF data assimilation system: recent progress and results; Xuguang Wang, University of Oklahoma, Ting Lei, Jeff Whitaker, Daryl Kleist, Russ Treadon and John Derber


Assess the impact of observations in NCEP GSI-EnKF hybrid data assimilation system through OSE and ensemble based observation impact estimate; Govindan Kutty Mohan Kumar and Xuguang Wang


Coupling EnKF with 4DVar for mesoscale data assimilation; Jon Poterjoy, Penn State University, Fuqing Zhang , Meng Zhang, Xin Zhang and Xiangyu Huang


11:50-1:30 Lunch


1:30-2:50                Session 3: FORMAL POSTER VIEWING                 (more to come)



The Kalman-Bucy Filter in the ensemble framework. Javier Amezcua, Kayo Ide, Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland,  Sebastian Reich, Potsdam Universitat

Radar Data Assimilation Using the High Resolution Ensemble Kalman Filter. Weiguang Chang , Kao-Shen Chung  and Luc Fillion

The Canadian High Resolution Ensemble Kalman Filter (HRENKF): Examination of Forecast Errors at Convective Scale. Kao-Shen Chung, Weiguang Chang, Luc Fillion and Monique Tanquay

On the effectiveness of surface assimilation in probabilistic nowcasts of PBL profiles. Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein and Joshua P. Hacker

Errors in Error Variance Prediction and Ensemble Post-Processing. Elizabeth Satterfield, Craig Bishop

Improving Short-Term QPFs over Complex Terrain with a WRF-LETKF Radar Data Assimilation System: OSSEs on Typhoon Morakot (2009). Chih-Chien Tsai, Shu-Chih Yang, and Yu-Chieng Liou

Observing Strategy and Observation Targeting for Tropical Cyclones using  Ensemble-based Sensitivity Analysis and Data Assimilation. BaoguoXie, FuqingZhang, QinghongZhang, and Jon Poterjoy

Assessing the Impact of the Horizontal Covariance Localization Radius When Assimilating Infrared Brightness Temperature Observations. Jason Otkins, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Assimilation of Water Vapor Sensitive Infrared Brightness Temperature Observations during A High Impact Weather Event. Jason Otkins, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Estimation of Surface Fluxes with an Advanced Data Assimilation Methodology Carbon, Heat, and Moisture *Ji-Sun Kang, *Eugenia Kalnay, *Takemasa Miyoshi, +Junjie Liu, and #Inez Fung *University of Maryland, College Park, +NASA/JPL, #University of California, Berkeley

The impact of localization and observation averaging for convective-scale data assimilation in simple stochastic models. Michael Würsch and George C. Craig, University of Munich.

Coupled assimilation of both atmospheric and oceanic observations for ENSO prediction using an intermediate coupled model. Fei Zheng, and Jiang Zhu, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

The CNMCA Operational LETKF Data Assimilation System: Recent Results and Developments Lucio Torrisi, Francesca Marcucci, Antonio Vocino, Alexandre Lanciani, CNMCA - Italian National Met. Center, Rome – Italy

A comparison of 4D-Var with 4D-En-Var. D. Fairbairn* and S.R. Pring, * University of Surrey

Parameter estimation in the presence of modell error. Juan J.. Ruiiz1,3 and Manuell Pulliido2,3 Universidad Nacional de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Comparing Representations of Model Error for Assimilation of Surface Observations. Soyoung Ha, Chris Snyder and Judith Berner (NCAR, Boulder CO USA)

Forecast Sensitivity of an April 2012 Southern Plains Convective Event. Christopher Bednarczyk and Brian Ancell Atmospheric Science Group, Department of Geosciences, Texas Tech University ,


2:50-6:00 afternoon break

6:00-7:30 dinner            


7:30-8:50                Session 4: PBL and AIR-SEA COUPLING                           4 talks, 20 min discussion

                        Session chair: Takemasa Miyoshi


Comparisons of EnKF, 4D-Var and ECCO applied to a toy “coupled ocean-atmosphere” model; Tamara Singleton, University of Maryland, Eugenia Kalnay, Kayo Ide and Shu-Chih Yang


Ensemble Data Assimilation in a Simple Coupled Climate Model: The Role of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction. Zhengyu Liu (University of Wisconsin), Shu Wu, Shaoqing Zhang, Yun Liu, Xinyao Rong


Improved ensemble-mean forecast skills of ENSO events by a zero-mean stochastic model-error model of an intermediate coupled model. Jiang Zhu, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Fei Zheng


Development of the NCAR 4D-REKF ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system and a comparison with DART-EnKF and WRFVAR Yonghui Wu (NCAR), Yubao Liu, Linlin Pan, Al Bourgeois, Jason Knievel, Scott Swerdlin, Xin Zhang and Xiang-Yu Huang,  John Pace, Frank Gallagher and Scott Halvorson


DAY 2, Wednesday, May 23, 2012

7:00-8:00 Breakfast

8:00-9:40                Session 5: OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATIONS          4 talks, 20 min discussion

                        Session chair: Lucio Torrisi


EnKF for global NWP: The experience at ECMWF; Mats Hamrud and Massimo Bonavita , ECMWF


Implementation of Hybrid Variational-ETKF Data Assimilation at the Met Office; Peter Jermey Data Assimilation Scientist Met Office


Environment Canada's Regional Ensemble Kalman Filter: Some preliminary results;  Seung-Jong Baek (Environmental Canada), Luc Fillion, and Peter Houtekamer


Design thoughts for an ensemble DA scheme;  Neill E. Bowler, Met Office, Exeter, UK.


10:10-11:50          Session 6:  TROPICAL CYCLONES II                        4 talks, 20 min discussion

                        Session chair: Eugenia Kalnay


EnKF experiments assimilating synthetic Global Hawk HIWRAP radial velocity data for hurricane initialization, Jason Sippel, NASA/Goddard, Scott Braun, Fuqing Zhang and Yonghui Weng


Applying an outer-loop to the WRF-LETKF system for typhoon assimilation and prediction, Shu-Chih Yang and Kuan-Jen Lin


Influence of assimilating satellite-derived high-resolution data On analyses and Forecasts of tropical cyclone track and structure;  Ting-Chi Wu (University of Miami), Hui Liu, Sharan Majumdar, Chris Velden and Jeff Anderson


Studying the Impact of Saharan Dust on Tropical Cyclone Evolution using WRF/Chem and EnKF; Yongsheng Chen (York University), Jianyu Liang, and Zhiquan Liu


11:50-1:30 Lunch

1:30-2:50                Session 7: CONVECTIVE SCALE I                  3 talks, 20 min discussion

                        Session chair: Allen Zhao


The Impact of Assimilating Radar Observations on Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses and Forecasts of the 8 May 2003 Tornadic Supercell Storm;  Nusrat Yussouf (NOAA/NSSL), Edward R. Mansell, Louis J. Wicker, Dustan M. Wheatley, David Dowell, Michael C. Coniglio and David J. Stensrud


Analysis of the Goshen County tornadic supercell on 5 June 2009 during VORTEX2 using EnKF assimilation of mobile radar observations; James Marquis (Penn State University), Yvette Richardson, Paul Markowski, David Dowell, Josh Wurman, Karen Kosiba, and Paul Robinson.


EnKF assimilation of storm-scale, mobile Doppler radar data into high-resolution analyses of a weakly tornadic supercell;  Robin L. Tanamachi (NSSL/OU), Ming Xue, Youngsun Jung, Keith A. Brewster, Michael I. Biggerstaff


2:50-6:00 afternoon break


6:00-7:00 dinner


7:00-8:30                Session 8:  THEORY AND ALGORITHM                             4 talks, 20 min discussion

                        Session chair: Jeff Anderson


Combining inflation-free and iterative ensemble Kalman filters for strongly nonlinear systems;  Marc Bocquet (Université Paris-Est, CEREA joint laboratory Ecole des Ponts ParisTech and EdF R&D, France.), Pavel Sakov


Hidden Error Variance Theory: Deriving Optimal Combinations of Static and Flow Dependent Variances; Elizabeth Satterfield and Craig H. Bishop (NRL, Monterey, CA)


Empirical Localization of Observation Impact in Ensemble Data Assimilation; Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geophysics


 Assessing the Efficiency of an Ensemble-Based Kalman Filter in Representing the Analysis Uncertainty; Istvan Szunyogh (Texas A&M) and Elizabeth Satterfield (NRC)



DAY 3, Thursday, May 22, 2012


7:00-8:00 Breakfast


8:00-9:40                Session 9: CONVECTIVE SCALE II                4 talks, 20 min discussion

                        Session chair: Yubao Liu


Multi-scale EnKF data assimilation and forecasts of the 10 May 2010 tornado case in the central US domain, Youngsun Jung (University of Oklahoma), Ming Xue, Yunheng Wang, Yujie Pan, and Kefeng Zhu


Utilizing a cycled WRF-DART mesoscale analysis system for convection permitting forecasts.;  Glen Romine (NCAR), Craig Schwartz, Chris Snyder, Jeff Anderson


Direct assimilation of VIS/NIR radiances and observation impact calculation in a limited-area LETKF system;  Matthias Sommer (Hans-Ertel-Centre for Data Assimilation, Meteorologisches Institut, LMU Muenchen, Germany), Philipp Kostka, Hendrik Reich, Andreas Rhodin, Martin Weissmann


A Regional GSI-EnKF Hybrid System Development and Testing for the Rapid Refresh Configuration, Yujie Pan (University of Oklahoma), Kefeng Zhu, Ming Xue, Xuguang Wang, Jeffrey S. Whitaker, Stanley G. Benjamin and Stephen S. Weygandt


10:10-11:30          Session 10:  Grand Discussion                       0 talks, 80 min discussion

                        Moderators: Ryan Torn, Takemasa Miyoshi and Fuqing Zhang

11:30-1:00 Lunch

1:00 Workshop Adjourn