PSU WRF/EnKF Real-time

PSU WRF/EnKF Real-time Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

Select a storm Initial time 2013060100 Hours of forecast 0h forecast Surface 850mb 700mb 500mb 300mb


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Technical notes about the PSU WRF/EnKF Real-time Hurricane Prediction System (pdf) The forecast system is based on WRF ARW V3.4.1 and the Penn State (PSU) EnKF with 60 ensemble members for data assimilation. There are three triply nested WRF forecast domains with grid spacing of 27/9/3 km. The system is initialized before the storm developed, and cycling the assimiltion with all conventional observations, Recon and TDR data every 3 hours till the end of the storm. APSU (top-left): PSU 3-km deterministic forecast with EnKF data assimilation PS01~10: PSU 10-member ensemble forecast All these 11 figures are derived from the 2nd 9-km domain. References: Zhang, Fuqing, Yonghui Weng, John Gamache and Frank Marks, 2011: Performance of convection-permitting hurricane initialization and prediction during 2008-2010 with ensemble data assimilation of inner-core airborne Doppler radar observations. ,Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L15810, doi:10.1029/2011GL048469. Yonghui Weng and Fuqing Zhang, 2012: Assimilating airborne Doppler radar observations with an ensemble Kalman filter for cloud-resolving hurricane initialization and prediction: Katrina (2005). Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 841-859.