PSU WRF/EnKF Real-time Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

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Forecast initial time

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pminBC sat
Technical notes about the PSU WRF/EnKF Real-time Hurricane Prediction System (pdf)

  • The forecast system is based on WRF ARW V3.4.1 and the Penn State (PSU) EnKF with 60 ensemble members for data assimilation.
  • There are three triply nested WRF forecast domains with grid spacing of 27/9/3 km.
  • The system is initialized before the storm developed, and cycling the assimiltion with all conventional observations, Recon and TDR data every 3 hours till the end of the storm.
  • PSU control (ATCF id APSU): PSU 3-km deterministic forecast initialized with PSU EnKF analysis.
  • PSU ensemble: 10-member ensemble forecasts initialized with PSU EnKF perturbations.
  • GFS (ATCF id AVNO): GFS operational forecast by NCEP/EMC.
  • HWRF: NOAA regional-scale operational hurricane forecast model by NCEP/EMC.
  • GFDL: NOAA regional-scale operational hurricane forecast model by GFDL.
  • OFCL: NOAA official hurricane forecast issued by NHC.
  • BEST: NOAA NHC operational best track estimate of track and intensity.
References: Credits: This real-time system is developed and maintained by Fuqing Zhang and Yonghui Weng, Department of Meteorology, Penn State University. Funding is provided by the National Science Foundation, Office of Naval Research, and NOAA HFIP. Supercomputing is conducted at the NOAA supercluster jet and the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC) superclusters.

WARNING: This forecast is experimental and not intended to replace the official forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center and/or the National Weather Service.