PSU WRF/EnKF Real-time Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

Select an active storm

Forecast initial time

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Since Jun 24 2012 free counters

Track Forecasts Bias corrected maximum surface wind
track vmaxBC
Minimum Sea Level Pressure Satellite overview at initial time
pmin sat
Technical notes about the PSU WRF/EnKF Real-time Hurricane Prediction System

  • All forecast times are displayed in GMT. It is 4 hours after the Eastern Time (ET).
  • The forecast system is based on WRF ARW V3.3.1 and the Penn State (PSU) EnKF with 60 ensemble members for data assimilation.
  • There are three triply nested WRF forecast domains with grid spacing of 27/9/3 km.
  • APSU: PSU 3-km deterministic forecast initialized with PSU EnKF assimilating airborne Doppler radar observations
      ---> usually available at the 00 or 12Z if there is a NOAA P3 TDR mission
  • ANPS: PSU 3-km forecast with no airborne Radar assimilation deterministic forecast
  • HWRF: NOAA regional-scale operational hurricane forecast model by NCEP/EMC.
  • GFDL: NOAA regional-scale operational hurricane forecast model by GFDL.
  • OFCL: NOAA official hurricane forecast issued by NHC.
  • BEST: NOAA NHC operational best track estimate of track and intensity.
References: Credits: This real-time system is developed and maintained by Fuqing Zhang and Yonghui Weng, Department of Meteorology, Penn State University. Funding is provided by the National Science Foundation, Office of Naval Research, and NOAA HFIP. Supercomputing is conducted at the NOAA supercluster T-jet and the Texas Advanced Computing Center (TACC) supercluster Ranger.

WARNING: This forecast is experimental and not intended to replace the official forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center and/or the National Weather Service.